Midterm Elections 2018 Recap

Last Tuesday were the much anticipated Midterm Elections. We've been providing actions about them for some time now. Here's our recap of what went down.

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Efforts of progressive organizing across the country seem to have paid off when it comes to House elections: Tuesday night saw the House of Representatives flip soundly from Republican to Democratic control (take a moment, take a breath, and let yourself feel happy). Before Election Day, Democrats had controlled 195 of the 435 seats in the House (218 is necessary to gain the majority); now they have, at the very least, 227. One of those seats flipped is now Lucy McBath’s, one of Teens Resist’s highlighted candidates—so congratulations to all those who channelled their efforts into helping her win!

Before we dive in, we want to highlight a couple more standout races. In one major upset, Democrat Kendra Horn turned Oklahoma City blue for the first time in almost 50 years, defeating Republican incumbent Steve Russell in Oklahoma’s 5th district. And in New York’s 11th Congressional District, which covers Staten Island and a sliver of Brooklyn, Democratic veteran Max Rose beat Trump-endorsed incumbent Dan Donovan. Although a FiveThirtyEight polls gave Rose only a 1 in 4 chance of winning and rated the race “Likely Republican,” Rose won by an astounding six percentage points. And overall, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and California—Democrats flipped either three or four seats in each—were key to this representation of the Blue Wave.

10 seats remain uncalled, so Democrats have the chance to pick up even more seats as final results continue to trickle in. Of those uncalled seats, Democrats have a lead in four. 

Democratic control of only one house of Congress might seem like a disappointment, but the House of Representatives alone can do a whole lot of good. Admittedly, progressive legislation that passes the House is unlikely to become law facing opposition from both the Senate and the White House. But a House controlled by Democrats means…  

• The GOP legislative agenda is as good as dead. Democrats might not be able to get too many laws passed, but they will no longer be on the defensive against bills like the tax cut, the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, cuts to food stamps, yet more tax cuts for the wealthy, and loosening gun regulation like the Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act. It might not seem like much, but it’s an incredible relief not to have to spend so much time and energy fighting back against these bills. 
• Congressional oversight of the Trump Administration. For the past two years, the Republican House majority has shown little interest in aggressively investigating Trump’s many possible misendemours—re: anything from collusion with Russia during the 2016 election to inappropriate financial ties to tax evasion (maybe we’ll finally get to see those returns!), Democrats have indicated that with control of the House, they’re ready to make Trump’s life very, very difficult. They can subpoena documents and order live testimony, for instance, and they have the potential to unearth something that could potentially be extremely incriminating and possibly destructive to his presidency.  
• Maybe… maybe… some constructive legislative action. There’s no understating the obstacle that is a Senate under strong Republican control, but it’s worth mentioning that both President Trump and Senate Republicans are incentivized to collaborate with Democrats on at least some fronts now. Passing legislation that would be widely popular could give senators and the president issues to campaign on in 2020. You don’t have to be thrilled about the idea of their reelection, but ideally, Senate Democrats would be able to do things like address DACA, pass an infrastructure spending bill, or even pass gun control legislation, while still avoiding handing Trump a big enough legislative victory to spurn him to reelection. ​​

THE SENATE

The Republicans made gains in the Senate this past Tuesday and retained the majority they have had since January of 2015. With victories in North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana, they flipped three previously blue seats red (with incumbents Heidi Heitkamp, Claire McCaskill, and Joe Donnelly losing, respectively). Democratic sensation and Teens Resist candidate Beto O’Rourke lost his race to Ted Cruz for the open Texas seat, something that I think we’re all a little sad about, no matter how unlikely a blue victory was. But it’s important to remember that he lost by less than 2.6 points in a state that went for Trump by 9 points in 2016, and Cruz won by 16 points when fighting for the same seat in 2012. Beto may not have won, but he did prove that we need unashamedly progressive, compelling candidates like him to appeal to red states, not centrists.

​In a major Democratic victory, though, Teens Resist candidate Jacky Rosen beat Republican incumbent Dean Heller to win the seat in Nevada. And, after a very drawn-out race, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema emerged victorious over Republican Martha McSally in Arizona, flipping another seat blue. In Florida, however, a recount is ongoing, presenting a potential opportunity for Democrats (if they win) to limit the Republican net gain to only one seat. The recount is taking place due to the difference between the top two candidates being within Florida’s recount margin of one half a percent.
       The chance of a Democratic win in the Senate was highly unlikely, given the fact that Democrats had to play defense in many races and had only a handful of opportunities to win Republican-held seats, many of which were in heavily rural, red states. Sinema’s and Rosen’s victories in Arizona and Nevada are significant in their location in the west, which once was thought of as a bastion of conservatism. Though the 'blue wave’ may not have entirely come to fruition within the Senate, a blue ripple has definitely occurred.

GUBERNATORIAL RACES

    Last week, Democrats made impressive gains in gubernatorial races during the midterm elections. The first regular election in all but three states since 2014, the gubernatorial primaries were held in 36 states and three territories. Incumbent state governors running to be reelected included 14 Republicans, 5 Democrats, and 1 independent.  Winning 49.4% of the popular vote, Democrats flipped seven Republican strongholds, while Republicans lost six seats on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Notably, in Kansas, one of the most conservative states in the nation, Democratic State Senator Laura Kelly won in a decisive victory over current Kansas Secretary of State (and ruby-red Republican) Kris Kobach. Similarly, in the gubernatorial race in Illinois, Michigan billionaire J.B Pritzker (Dem) unseated first term Governor Bruce Rauner (Rep), who supported the suspension of Syrian refugees into our nation. In Wisconsin, Democrat Tony Evers narrowly beat incumbent Republican Scott Walker largely by running on a platform of education. The highly contested race in Florida is currently being recounted, although Democrat Andrew Gillum is lagging slightly behind his opponent.  Check the GA/FL section below for more info on those races!!
    The combination of tireless activism, grassroots efforts, and passionate lobbying across the country will result in substantial progress for the Democratic party. Almost all the governors elected last week will still be in office in 2021, when the next cycle of congressional redistricting begins.  This is significant because the 2022 midterm elections will feature new boundaries for House districts based on the 2021 census. In 37 states, the legislature approves these maps, and in the majority of those states, the governor can veto the redrawing of legislation maps. In general, the gains Democrats made could also mean significant liberal policy change, tighter gun laws, and looser marijuana laws.

​ONGOING RACES IN GA AND FL

Stacey Abrams on Election Night. Image via GPB News.

There are a few races that still do not have a winner as of right now (Monday, November 12th at 3:30 PM). We’re spotlighting the ones that have to do with voting rights and voter suppression.
    One highly publicized race is the Georgia governor’s race. The candidates are Brian Kemp, a Trump-endorsed ruby-red conservative who currently serves as Georgia’s Secretary of State, and Stacey Abrams, an Obama-endorsed candidate known for her liberal beliefs and bipartisan compromises who has served as the Georgia Assembly’s Democratic Minority Leader since 2010. If Abrams wins, she will be the first Black female governor in United States history.
Controversy has been present since the election’s beginning—Kemp’s responsibilities as Secretary of State include overseeing elections, meaning that he would be responsible for the fairness of the race he was a candidate in (pretty backward, right?). As we previously covered, an “exact-match” voting policy was introduced in the fall, which demanded that people’s voter registration documents match their Social Security or driver’s records letter for letter and hyphen for hyphen. The policy was meant to combat mostly nonexistent “voter fraud” and (big surprise) disproportionately affected Black and Latinx voters in Georgia. Justice groups affiliated with the Abrams campaign sued and the policies were relaxed a little.
On Election Day, Georgia voters were faced with three hour-long lines (the time allotted off from work to vote is two hours), malfunctioning equipment, and confusion over absentee and provisional ballots. Kemp won the majority of votes on election night, but Abrams refused to concede. On election night, three counties had reported only some of their mail-in ballots, and four counties had reported exactly zero of them. Those counties lean Democratic. Since then, Kemp has self-coronated himself, while Abrams has continued to fight, saying that she will not concede until every single vote has been counted. The Abrams campaign has filed lawsuits to count late ballots delayed by Hurricane Michael and other similar voting discrepancies. After around-the-clock legal work, the Abrams campaign has found that at least 30,823 ballots have yet to be counted, and the campaign is confident that a runoff election or recount is possible. Kemp has stepped down as Secretary of State, meaning he would not be overseeing a runoff election if that were to happen.
    Abrams has said that no matter the outcome, it is important for every vote to be counted for the sake of democracy, and has urged Kemp to support her campaign’s efforts to count every vote. Abrams garnered unprecedented support and received 4 percent more of Georgia’s population of white voters than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. She also received half of the votes of white, college-educated women, while Clinton received only a third.
    A similar situation is occurring in Florida, where progressive Democrat Andrew Gillum is running for governor and Bill Nelson is running for Senate. The races were razor-thin, and the Florida Secretary of State announced that a recount would take place for the gubernatorial, Senate, and agricultural commissioner’s races. This development came after Gillum revoked his concession and various lawsuits were filed. Here is a more detailed description of recounts in the state, if you’re interested.
In a major move to combat voter suppression (in future elections), the state also passed a ballot measure that will give over 1 million individuals previously convicted of felonies in Florida the right to vote in the future.

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BIG FIRSTS & DEMOGRAPHICS!

FIRSTS

• Sharice Davids (KS-3) became the first openly LGBTQ+ Kansan elected to Congress.
• Sharice Davids (KS-3) and Debra Haaland (NM-1) became the first Native Americans elected to Congress.
• Ilhan Omar (MN-5) and Rashida Tlaib (MI-13) became the first Muslim women elected as representatives.
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14) and Abby Finkenauer (IA-1) became the youngest women elected to Congress, both at 29.
• Angie Craig (MN-2) became the first lesbian mother elected to Congress.
• Jared Polis (Colorado) became the first openly gay man elected as governor.
• Sylvia Garcia (TX-29) and Veronica Escobar (TX-16) became the first Latina congresswomen elected from Texas.
• Ayanna Pressley (MA-7) became the first Black member of the House elected from Texas.
• Jahana Hayes (CT-5) became the first Black female congressperson from Connecticut.
• Republican Kristi Noem (ND) became the first woman elected as governor from North Dakota.
• Janet Mills (ME) became the first woman elected as governor from Maine.
• Republican Marsha Blackburn (TN) became the first woman elected to Senate from Tennessee. NOTE: This is something we celebrate much less, since she is a bigot.
• Democrat Kyrsten Sinema became the first female senator from Arizona (and she is America’s first bisexual senator)

Midterm voter turnout was the highest it has been in 50 years; well over 100 millions Americans showed up at the polls.

Some notable facts about voter demographics in the two-party U.S. House vote:

• Over 65 percent of the 18-39 age group voted Democratic (up 10 percent from 2016).
  • To put that into perspective, just about 45 percent of the 65+ age group voted Democratic.
• Women voted 13 points more Democratic than men (60 percent to 47 percent).
• Among white voters, college-educated women voted the most Democratic (over 65 percent), while non-college-educated men voted the least Democratic (under 40 percent).
• People of color voted overwhelmingly Democratic, as opposed to white voters, who voted 44 percent Democratic:
  • Hispanic voters voted 69 percent Democratic
  • Black voters voted 90 percent Democratic
  • Asian voters voted 77 percent Democratic

If you want more detailed info and statistics, check out this article and this article! Since the elections were fairly recent and there’s a lot of data still coming in/being analyzed, this is obviously an overview of who voted how. If you’re interested, make sure to do some googling in a couple weeks!

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